Mastering Amazon Inventory Forecasting: A Comprehensive Guide for Sellers

As an Amazon seller, maintaining optimal inventory levels is crucial for the success of your business. Overstocking can tie up your capital and increase storage fees, while understocking can lead to lost sales and a drop in search rankings. Amazon’s inventory forecasting tools in Seller Central are designed to help sellers navigate this delicate balance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore how to effectively use these tools to optimize your inventory management, reduce costs, and maximize profits.

Understanding Amazon’s Inventory Forecasting Tools
Amazon provides several inventory forecasting tools within Seller Central to help you make informed decisions about your stock levels. These include:

a) Restock Inventory Page
b) Inventory Planning
c) Inventory Performance Dashboard
d) Inventory Age Report
e) Forecast Page

Each of these tools offers unique insights and functionalities that, when used correctly, can significantly improve your inventory management strategy.

Navigating the Restock Inventory Page
The Restock Inventory page is your primary tool for managing inventory levels. Here’s how to use it effectively:

a) Accessing the page: Navigate to Inventory > Inventory Planning > Restock Inventory in Seller Central.

b) Understanding the metrics:

Weeks of Cover: Estimated time your current inventory will last based on forecasted demand.
Recommended Restock Quantity: Amazon’s suggestion for how much inventory to send in.
Restock Date: The date by which you should send in new inventory to avoid stockouts.
c) Customizing your view: Use filters to focus on specific products or categories that need attention.

d) Interpreting the data: Pay close attention to products with low Weeks of Cover or high Recommended Restock Quantities.

Pro Tip: Don’t rely solely on Amazon’s recommendations. Use these as a starting point and adjust based on your knowledge of your products and market trends.

Leveraging the Inventory Planning Tool
The Inventory Planning tool provides a broader view of your inventory health. Here’s how to make the most of it:

a) Accessing the tool: Go to Inventory > Inventory Planning in Seller Central.

b) Key features to utilize:

FBA Inventory Age: Monitor how long your products have been in Amazon’s warehouses.
Excess Inventory: Identify products where you may be overstocked.
Stranded Inventory: Find and fix listing issues preventing sales.
c) Taking action:

For aged inventory, consider running promotions or adjusting prices to increase sell-through.
For excess inventory, evaluate your reordering strategy and consider using removal orders if necessary.
For stranded inventory, address listing issues promptly to get products back in stock.
Maximizing the Inventory Performance Dashboard
The Inventory Performance Dashboard provides an overall health score for your inventory management. Here’s how to use it:

a) Accessing the dashboard: Find it under Inventory > Inventory Planning > Inventory Performance.

b) Understanding your IPI score: This score (0-1000) reflects your overall inventory management efficiency.

c) Key metrics to monitor:

Excess Inventory Percentage
Sell-Through Rate
Stranded Inventory Percentage
FBA In-Stock Rate
d) Improving your score:

Reduce excess inventory by adjusting reorder quantities and running promotions.
Improve sell-through by optimizing listings and adjusting prices.
Address stranded inventory issues promptly.
Maintain healthy in-stock levels for your fast-moving products.
Utilizing the Inventory Age Report
The Inventory Age Report helps you identify slow-moving stock. Here’s how to use it effectively:

a) Accessing the report: Go to Reports > Fulfillment > Inventory Age in Seller Central.

b) Interpreting the data:

Review products in different age buckets (0-90 days, 91-180 days, 181-270 days, 271-365 days, 365+ days).
Pay special attention to items in older age buckets.
c) Taking action:

For older inventory, consider price reductions or promotions to increase sales velocity.
Evaluate your purchasing strategy for slow-moving items.
Consider removal orders for extremely aged inventory to avoid long-term storage fees.
Exploring the Forecast Page
The Forecast page provides sales projections to help with inventory planning. Here’s how to leverage this tool:

a) Accessing the page: Navigate to Reports > Forecasting in Seller Central.

b) Understanding the forecasts:

Review historical sales data and projected sales for the next 12 weeks.
Pay attention to seasonal trends and potential spikes in demand.
c) Using the data:

Adjust your inventory levels based on projected sales increases or decreases.
Plan ahead for seasonal peaks by increasing stock well in advance.
Use the forecasts to inform your marketing and promotion strategies.
Best Practices for Using Amazon’s Inventory Forecasting Tools
To get the most out of these tools, consider the following best practices:

a) Regularly review and update your forecasts: Market conditions can change rapidly, so frequent reviews are essential.

b) Consider external factors: Amazon’s tools don’t account for your marketing efforts or external market conditions. Factor these in when making decisions.

c) Use historical data wisely: While past performance is a good indicator, don’t rely on it exclusively. Look for changing trends and new opportunities.

d) Maintain accurate product information: Ensure your product listings are up-to-date with correct weights and dimensions for accurate forecasting.

e) Monitor competitor activity: Keep an eye on competitor stock levels and pricing, as these can impact your sales velocity.

f) Adjust for lead times: Factor in production and shipping times when planning your restocks.

g) Set up alerts: Use Amazon’s alert system to notify you of low stock levels or other inventory issues.

Advanced Strategies for Inventory Forecasting
Once you’re comfortable with the basic tools, consider these advanced strategies:

a) Segmenting your inventory: Categorize products based on sales velocity and profit margins. Apply different stocking strategies to each segment.

b) Implementing safety stock: Maintain a buffer of inventory for your best-selling items to account for unexpected demand spikes.

c) Using third-party forecasting tools: While Amazon’s tools are powerful, third-party software can provide additional insights and automation.

d) Analyzing price elasticity: Understand how price changes affect demand for your products and factor this into your forecasting.

e) Conducting scenario planning: Prepare for different possible outcomes (e.g., higher than expected demand, supply chain disruptions) and have contingency plans.

Common Pitfalls to Avoid
While using Amazon’s inventory forecasting tools, be aware of these common mistakes:

a) Over-relying on Amazon’s recommendations: Use them as a guide, not a rule.

b) Ignoring seasonality: Many products have seasonal demand patterns that need to be factored into forecasts.

c) Failing to account for marketing efforts: Your promotional activities can significantly impact demand.

d) Not considering product life cycles: New product launches and end-of-life products require different forecasting approaches.

e) Neglecting to review and adjust regularly: Forecasting is an ongoing process that requires frequent attention.

Conclusion:

Mastering Amazon’s inventory forecasting tools is essential for successful inventory management on the platform. By effectively utilizing the Restock Inventory page, Inventory Planning tool, Inventory Performance Dashboard, Inventory Age Report, and Forecast Page, you can optimize your stock levels, reduce costs, and maximize profits. Remember to combine these tools with your own market knowledge and external data for the best results.

At Marketplace Valet, we understand the complexities of Amazon inventory management. Our team of experts can help you navigate these tools and develop a robust inventory strategy tailored to your business needs. Don’t let inventory issues hold back your Amazon business – contact us today to learn how we can help you optimize your inventory management and drive growth on Amazon.